EU: Early estimate of barley S/D vague amid pandemic and still uncertain crop prospects

An early estimate of the EU barley S/D must be vague in the aftermath of the pandemic and still uncertain crop prospects, H. M. Gauger GbmH said in their June report.

The analysts base their numbers on a 15% reduction of the average EU malt demand, for domestic use and export, but admittedly losses will differ from country to country. The malting capacity is 9.0 mln tonnes in the EU-27, equal to a barley demand of 11.25 mln tonnes of malting barley. It means 85% = 9.5 mln tonnes in 2020/21.

The 4 large EU malt producers normally use 2.0 mln tonnes of winter barley, this campaign may see approximately 1.7 mln tonnes: (in 1,000 tonnes) Belgium – 450, Germany 250, France 800, the Netherlands 200. Supplies will come from France: crop of 8.0 mln tonnes x 30% selection = 2.4 mln tonnes; and from Germany approximately 200 thousand tonnes. It leaves a surplus of 0.9 mln tonnes for third countries or deficit regions in the eastern EU.