UK: 2006/2007 export forecast has increased with the closing stock forecast revised lower

The UK barley production estimate 2006/2007 stands at 5.239Mt, down 5% on last season, HGCA posted in its Supply & Demand Report as of 30 May 2007. No changes have been made to opening stocks or imports. Total availability stands at 6.211Mt, down 4% on last season.

H&I use in the barley sector has been increased by 10,000t to 1.712Mt, very similar to last season. The forecast for H&I use of maize is 0.767Mt, unchanged on the previous forecast and up 2% on last season. H&I use in the oats sector has been left unchanged on previous at 0.416Mt (18% higher than last season).

Animal feed use of barley is revised down by 7,000t to 3.024Mt, down 2% on last season. Maize use in the feed sector is placed at 0.437Mt (down 5,000t on previous but 9% above last season) while oats use is placed 0.248Mt, up 4,000t on previous and up 22% on last season.

There are no revisions to seed use for either wheat or barley.

Barley exports and intervention are estimated at 0.485Mt, up 35,000t on the last forecast and 27% below 2005/06. Closing stocks of barley are estimated at 0.829Mt, a downward revision of 38,000t on previous and 3% below last season.

Maltsters’ and distillers’ barley use, at 1.267Mt, was 6,000t (1%) higher than last season. H&I maize use was 0.573Mt, up 10,000t (2%), while H&I oat use was 0.303Mt, up 47,000t (18%).

Recorded barley exports totalled 0.461Mt, compared to 0.549Mt in 2005/06. Barley imports totalled 77,000t, up from 48,000t last season.

Onfarm barley stocks stood at 0.422Mt, up 13,000t (3%) on last year. Maltsters’ barley stocks stood at 0.703Mt, down 48,000t (6%) on last season.

Wheat and barley intervention stocks were zero. This compares to 0t and 10,000t respectively at the same point last season.

For barley, the export forecast has increased with the closing stock forecast revised lower. The reported barley trade data gives potential for a further reduction in barley stocks.

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