Canada: For 2006-07 barley exports are forecast by AAFC to decrease significantly due to lower exports of feed barley

For 2006-07, Canada barley exports are forecast by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) to decrease significantly due to lower exports of feed barley. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease to the second lowest in recent history. Off-Board feed barley prices are expected to average significantly higher than 2005-06, due to high corn prices in the US and low supplies of barley in Canada.

For 2007-08, Barley production is forecast to increase by 31% due to higher area seeded and yields. Total supply is also forecast to rise sharply. Exports, feed use and food use are expected to increase due to increased supply. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase significantly. The average off-Board feed barley price is forecast to fall by 6%, as the pressure from higher production in Canada and Australia more than offsets the support from higher corn prices.

The CWB February PRO for feed barley Pool A is C$182/t vs. C$190/t for the 2006-07 Pool B and C$240/t for Special Select tworow designated barley vs. C$205/t for 2006-07.

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