EU: 12 million tonnes of malting barley is forecast by Strategie Grains for crop 2007 versus 10.4 million tonnes in 2006

The French forecaster "Strategie Grains" has published a first estimate of the EU-27 barley crop in 2007: 61 million tonnes of barley versus 56 million tonnes last year, of which 12 million tonnes malting barley versus 10.4 million tonnes in 2006.

Market analysts commented: “It is normal that crop forecasters base their figures on normal vegetation conditions, and in good years they are right. The experiences of past years, the recent UN study on the climatic changes in the world, and last, not least the strange warm winter in Europe to-date are warning us not to be too optimistic.

Market actions of the past months indicate that trade and industry have become less speculative and more security-minded in their activities. As a side-note it must be mentioned that Spain is rather dry again, and Greece and Turkey report drought conditions endangering their crops already at such an early stage. North America, on the other hand, is going though a very cold period.

Should that cold front come to Europe, there will be a great risk of winter kill in the far advanced fields of winter grains, unless the cold comes together with sufficient snowfalls. As a consequence a larger acreage of spring grains is still theoretically possible.”

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