North America: Canada barely crop forecast maintained at 9 mln tonnes but dry weather causes increasing concern

The prevailing dry weather pattern that allowed for a swift harvest completion in Canada is shifting toward an area of concern as these dry conditions leave soil moisture levels low. Although RMI Analytics have maintained their barley crop’25 forecast for the nation at 9.0 mln tonnes, which exceeds official estimates, there are private forecasts suggesting even higher figures based upon anticipated improved final yield results, the analysts said in their early November report.

Ending stocks are higher and could stretch further upward, leaving ample supply. The good early pace of barley exports off-shore plus to the US and Mexico has led to an increase in RMI’s crop-year estimate to 2.5 mln tonnes. However, the current pace appears to be slowing which is concerning.

The early official Canadian estimates for malt processing are mildly encouraging, as volumes are above both last year and the five-year average levels.

In a quiet market, Canadian barley prices are unchanged, but remain competitive in world markets, which is critical given the higher production level. Limited farmer selling is still a constraint for traders. Domestic feed barley prices have turned lower as, as US corn remains on feed rations and overall cattle numbers are down. RMI Analytics have reduced their barley demand forecast for feed barley slightly based upon these factors.