Australia: Barley crop forecast increased by further 0.5 mln tonnes

Additional rains across Australia’s key barley regions add much-needed moisture, as dry conditions and warmer temperatures are forecast in the coming weeks. The barley crop’25 forecast has increased a further 0.5 mln to 14.5 mln tonnes, on the good crop prospects in place, RMI Analytics said in their late September report.

With this big crop expected, a continued steady Chinese barley demand is essential, but the export pace has slowed of late.

With almost no remaining trade in crop ’24, attention is now fully on crop ’25, where prices have largely stabilized. Given a clearing forecast with limited rainfall predicted, farmers are holding back on selling as they await further crop development. The declining demand from China is impacting Kwinana prices, while Western Australia is anticipating a 7 mln tonnes crop, making ongoing robust exports to China essential.