Australia: Barley crop forecast at 12.8 mln tonnes in 2025-26

Australia is forecast to produce 30.6 million tonnes (Mt) of wheat, 12.8Mt of barley and 5.7Mt of canola in 2025-26, according to the quarterly Australian Crop Report released on June 2.

The report for the national winter crop now being planted has forecast chickpea production at 1.9Mt, down 17 percent from the 2024-25 figure, with expanded area expected to be offset by lower yields.

Lentil production at 1.5Mt is forecast to be up 17pc on last year, and planted over a record area of 1.1Mha.

Australian area planted to all winter crops, including the abovementioned, is forecast to decline marginally in 2025-26 to 24.9M hectares, 10pc above the 10-year average to 2024-25, and the second highest on record.

A forecast increase in area planted to winter crops in Western Australia is likely to be more than offset by falls in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia.

Area planted to wheat is forecast to fall by 3pc to 12.6Mha, while the area planted to barley is forecast to increase by 2pc to 4.7Mha.

The longer planting window for cereals is also expected to result in some late plantings following upcoming forecast rainfall events.

Area planted to canola is forecast to fall by 1pc to 3.4Mha in 2025-26, with the reduction in area planted in Victoria, South Australia, and southern New South Wales due to dry conditions almost offset by the increase in planted area in southern Western Australia.

According to Bureau of Meteorology three-month rainfall outlook through to August issued May 22, there is a 60-80pc chance that winter rainfall will be above average across cropping regions in Queensland, New South Wales, northern Victoria, and South Australia.

Meanwhile, cropping regions in Western Australia have a 35-50pc chance of receiving above-average rainfall.

This generally favourable rainfall outlook to August, if realised, is expected to support the germination of dry-sown crops and may allow for follow-up winter-crop planting.

Area planted to wheat and barley in Queensland is expected to fall by 6pc and 14 respectively, but remain above the 10-year averages to 2024-25.

By contrast, Queensland’s area planted to chickpeas is expected to rise 2pc in 2025-26, supported by elevated chickpea prices.

The state’s winter-crop yields are forecast to fall by 14pc to around 2.1t/ha in 2025-26 but remain 19pc above the 10-year average to 2024-25.

Average to above-average soil-moisture levels at planting combined with a positive rainfall outlook for winter, are expected to support above average yield prospects.

Winter-crop production in New South Wales is forecast to decrease by 23pc to 15.8Mt in 2025-26, but remain 23pc above the 10-year average to 2024-25.

An excellent start to the winter-cropping season in northern New South Wales has enabled most growers to fully realise their planting intentions.

Conditions in parts of central and most of southern New South Wales have not been as favourable, with below to very much below-average autumn rainfall limiting soil moisture availability and impacting planting intentions.

New South Wales area planted to winter crops is forecast to fall by 5pc in 2025-26 to 6.8Mha, still 19pc above the 10-year average to 2024-25.

The New South Wales area planted to wheat is forecast to be down 6pc year on year, but remains 14pc above the 10-year average to 2024-25.

The state’s barley area is forecast to be down only 2pc.

As the ideal planting window for canola closes without a significant rainfall event in southern cropping regions, growers are likely to switch into barley.

Very dry conditions during autumn in southern cropping regions of New South Wales, where the majority of canola is grown, is expected to result in an 8pc year-on-year fall in area planted to canola, with many growers opting to shift into less input-intensive options.

Winter-crop yields are currently forecast to average 2.3t/ha in 2025-26, 10pc above the 10-year average to 2024-25, mainly reflecting the excellent conditions in northern New South Wales, but also the forecast of improved climatic conditions in southern growing regions.

Winter crop production in Victoria is forecast to reach 8.3Mt in 2025-26, up 8pc from 2024-25, and 4pc above the 10-year average to 2024-25.

Prolonged dry conditions throughout cropping regions means a high proportion of the 2025-26 crop has been sown dry.

Parts of the eastern Mallee received some rainfall in late April which supported planting, but there has been little to no follow-up rain.

Both topsoil and subsoil moisture largely remain limited, weighing on planting intentions.

Adequate and timely winter rainfall will be crucial to support the germination and establishment of dry-sown crops, particularly in the western part of the state.

Area planted to winter crops in Victoria is expected to decline by 30,000ha in 2025-26 but remain 7pc above the 10-year average to 2024-25.

Given the dry start to the season, area planted is expected to favour barley, up 4pc, but weigh on wheat and canola, down 2pc and 5pc respectively.

Winter crop yields are forecast to rise by 9pc in 2025-26 but remain 5pc below the 10-year average to 2024-25.

Despite ongoing dry conditions, winter-crop production in South Australia is forecast to increase by 42pc to 7.5Mt in 2025-26.

However, this outcome will be highly reliant on the above-average winter rainfall forecast being realised.

This remains 3pc below the 10-year average to 2024-25.

Limited autumn rainfall has seen a large proportion of the 2025–26 winter crop sown dry.

South Australia’s area planted to winter crops is forecast to fall by 2pc to 3.8Mha in 2025-26, reflecting well below-average autumn rainfall; however, this remains 5pc above the 10-year average to 2024-25.

The state’s largest percentage decrease in area planted is expected for canola, as persistent dry conditions have resulted in a shift to less input intensive options such as barley and lentils.

Winter-crop production in Western Australia is forecast to fall by 9pc to 20.8Mt in 2025-26, 16pc above the 10-year average to 2024-25 of 18Mt.

The forecast year-on-year decrease in production is largely attributed to lower expected yields more than offsetting an increase in area planted.

Area planted to winter crops in Western Australia in 2025–26 is forecast to increase by 3pc to just over 9Mha, 7pc above the 10-year average to 2024-25.

This largely reflects an increase in barley and canola area sown in southern Western Australia, where growers have enjoyed a strong start to the winter-cropping season.

Hotter-than-average conditions and limited rainfall during autumn have led to low levels of soil moisture across northern cropping regions which have discouraged some planting, especially for high-risk crops such as canola.

Adequate and timely rainfall will be required in the coming weeks to support germination of dry-sown crops, particularly in the Geraldton zone, where topsoil is dry and subsoil moisture is severely deficient.

Western Australia’s winter-crop yields are forecast to fall by 12pc in 2025-26 but remain 9pc above the 10-year average to 2024–25, reflecting the favourable start to the season in southern cropping regions and close-to-average rainfall outlook.

However, these current yield expectations are highly reliant on timely in-crop rainfall to be realised.

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