China: Malt market expected to continue on an upward consumption trend

Driven by increasing demand for malt in China, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade, IndexBox sais in their latest report.

Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 13M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.3% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $8.6B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

In 2024, the amount of malt consumed in China shrank slightly to 11 mln tonnes, reducing by -1.5% compared with the year before. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 11 mln tonnes. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the consumption remained at a somewhat lower figure.

The revenue of the malt market in China expanded to $6B in 2024, with an increase of 3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated a pronounced expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, consumption decreased by -5.2% against 2022 indices. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $6.3B. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of the market remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In 2024, malt production in China dropped to 12 mln tonnes, approximately reflecting 2023. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 14% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 12 mln tonnes; afterwards, it flattened through to 2024.

In value terms, malt production expanded notably to $6.4B in 2024 estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated a notable expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, production decreased by -5.1% against 2022 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when the production volume increased by 26%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $6.7B. From 2023 to 2024, production growth remained at a lower figure.

In 2024, the amount of malt imported into China soared to 13 thousand tonnes, increasing by 53% on the year before. In general, imports, however, showed a mild contraction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 102% against the previous year. Imports peaked at 15 thousand tonnes in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, malt imports soared to $12M in 2024. Over the period under review, imports recorded moderate growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when imports increased by 101%. Imports peaked in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in the near future. Imports By Country Australia (4.4 thousand tonnes), Germany (3.9 thousand tonnes) and the UK (3.5 thousand tonnes) were the main suppliers of malt imports to China, together accounting for 94% of total imports. From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for the UK (with a CAGR of +48.0%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth. In value terms, the largest malt suppliers to China were Australia ($4M), Germany ($3.8M) and the UK ($3.6M), with a combined 95% share of total imports. Among the main suppliers, the UK, with a CAGR of +47.1%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The average malt import price stood at $956 per ton in 2024, remaining stable against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated noticeable growth from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, malt import price increased by +42.0% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 when the average import price increased by 31%. The import price peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term. Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major supplying countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the countries with the highest prices were the UK ($1,008 per ton) and Germany ($973 per ton), while the price for Australia ($905 per ton) and Belgium ($960 per ton) were amongst the lowest. From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (+6.1%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2024, approx. 597 thousand tons of malt were exported from China; rising by 38% compared with the previous year. Overall, total exports indicated buoyant growth from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.8% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports increased by +65.4% against 2021 indices. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, malt exports totaled $354M in 2024. Over the period under review, exports continue to indicate resilient growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when exports increased by 84%. Over the period under review, the exports attained the peak figure in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Thailand (157 thousand tonnes) was the main destination for malt exports from China, with a 26% share of total exports. Moreover, malt exports to Thailand exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Mexico (71 thousand tonnes), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by Vietnam (39 thousand tonnes), with a 6.4% share.

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