World: Barley production levels down for both crop 2024 and 2025
Barley production levels are reduced a minor extent in RMI Analytics’ latest report, as globally crop’24 drops to 141.4 mln tonnes (-0.4 mln), on final EU-27 crop validation; crop’25 forecast is down 0.4 mln tonnes to 144.7 mln tonnes, on a minor Australian reduction.
Demand is unchanged and remains above production levels, causing a further tightening to ending stocks. Within this demand, the Industrial component (malting demand) is expected to decline again in crop’25, due to the poor demand environment (beer and whisky).
Feed demand for barley is expected to increase in crop’25 due to reductions in corn production (e.g. Brazil/Argentina). China, meanwhile has a larger local corn crop, amidst a reduced demand from a sluggish economy
The world’s barley supply is comfortable after reasonable outcomes in most major producing regions. The general lack of demand makes lower production levels and declining ending stocks less worrisome. For the moment, there is ample supply, but normal crop’25 development is needed, the RMI analysts said.
The price trend for global barley prices is across the board upward. The wider grain complex is moving higher on weather concerns in the US Midwest and Russia, plus strong US corn exports, which together are supporting feed barley prices. In turn, a well-supported feed barley market is forcing malting barley markets to maintain a reasonable malting barley premium. With spring barley seeding rolling out in France and soon to start in the UK, malting barley premiums are a key signal to farmers to seed malting barley varieties, and in the process, retain as much barley planted area as possible.
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