Argentina: Barley crop forecast unchanged at 4.9 mln tonnes

While Argentina has received light rainfall, there have been heavy amounts falling in Uruguay and southern Brazil. As conditions remain in good shape for Argentina, RMI Analytics’ barley crop 2024 forecast for the nation is unchanged at 4.9 mln tonnes.

Farmer selling remains nearly zero as the expectation of government changes to export taxes and/or currency exchange rates remain in the forefront of farmers’ thinking. This leaves 2 mln tonnes of crop 2023, and nearly 5 mln of crop 2024, to be marketed by farmers at some stage.

Argentina barley prices are higher with the lack of farmer liquidity and the trade unwilling to sell short. Demand is present from various markets: domestic Argentina, South America, Europe, and China, although buyers’ price ideas are at least USD10/tonne below current market indications. Export tax component at current values is USD32/tonne; farmer expectations are 0% export tax in crop 2024, RMI reported.

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