Australia: Barley crop forecast remains at 12 mln tonnes but dryness raises further concern

With barley planting mostly complete in Australia, the focus remains on getting sufficient in-season rain to deliver a reasonable crop result. So far, conditions remain dry in most areas, with New South Wales and eastern Victoria the exceptions. There is also very limited rainfall in the forecast for the next week, RMI Analytics said in their late May report.

For now, RMI’s forecast for Australia’s barley crop remains at 12 mln tonnes, but clearly the situation will deteriorate without further rain. In some areas the dryness may inhibit seed germination from fully taking hold.

Farmers are disengaged from selling at this point due to dryness concerns, and as they watch wheat prices soar higher. Following wheat, barley prices have shot higher too. Execution of crop 2023 remains quite strong (e.g. China), albeit down somewhat from the peak over the past months. Domestic feed demand is present, despite higher prices, as cattle feeders look for coverage.

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