USA: USDA’s S&D barley forecast for MY 2007-08

USDA made only very minor adjustments In this month’s S&D projections, according to its press release, June 11. They increased MY 2007-08 beginning stocks by 5 million bu to 68 million bu (due to smaller than expected exports in the previous marketing year) and raised ending stocks by an equal amount to 73 million bu. USDA left U.S. barley production unchanged this month at 210 million bu, which is up 30 mbu from last year.
World barley production is pegged up 3% to 141.5 MMT, with consumption just outpacing production. US production is expected to increase 17% to 4.57 MMT.

World barley supplies are estimated 2% lower at 161.6 MMT, while US supplies are US supplies are projected to fall 3% to 6.05 MMT.

World barley trade is expected to increase 6% to 15.9 MMT. US exports are projected to fall 10% to .45 MMT.

World barley consumption is pegged to decrease 2% to 142.2 MMT, and US usage also is expected to decrease 2% to 4.5 MMT.

World barley carryover stocks are estimated to decline for the third consecutive year by 3% to 20.3 MMT, while US carryout is projected to increase 7% to 1.59 MMT.

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