Australia: Barley production forecast to fall by 18% in 2018-19

Australia’s total winter crop production is forecast to decrease by 23% in 2018–19 to 29.3 million tonnes, ABARES said in its December report.

Wheat production is forecast to decrease by 20% to around 17.0 million tonnes, barley production is forecast to fall by 18% to around 7.3 million tonnes, and canola production is forecast to fall by 39% to around 2.2 million tonnes, the ministry of agriculture said.

Australian winter crop prospects deteriorated in early spring because of unfavourable seasonal conditions in most cropping regions. September rainfall was very much below average in many cropping regions and the lowest on record in some others. Additionally, significant frost events occurred in southern New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. The combination of reduced crop prospects and high fodder prices provided producers in some regions with a strong incentive to cut many crops that were planted for grain production for hay. In some regions, particularly in New South Wales, many crops in very poor condition were either grazed or abandoned.

October rainfall was above average in most cropping regions in Queensland, northern New South Wales, Western Australia, and mostly average in other cropping regions. This rainfall benefitted crop prospects in southern New South Wales, southern Wimmera in Victoria, southern South Australia and Western Australia. However, it arrived too late in other regions to benefit winter crops. On balance, the benefit of October rainfall was much smaller than damage that resulted from unfavourable seasonal conditions during September.

Harvesting of winter crops is largely complete in Queensland and is underway in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. Quality of crops harvested to date has varied widely among different crops and regions but not enough has been harvested to assess overall crop quality. Rainfall in late October and November has slowed harvest progress in some cropping regions but is not expected to significantly affect overall crop quality. According to the latest rainfall outlook issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 29 November 2018, there is no strong tendency toward either higher or lower than average December rainfall in most cropping regions.

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