UK: Winter crop area seen higher this year
The provisional results of the AHDB Early Bird Survey of cropping intentions for harvest 2019 suggest an increase in the winter crop area, reversing the recent trend toward spring planting. This follows favourable drilling conditions this autumn for most of the UK and comparatively higher prices for combinable crops following the difficult summer this year, AHDB reported on December 3.
The survey was conducted in the first two weeks of November and this year covered almost 570 thousand ha of GB arable area.
The area of UK wheat is anticipated to rise by 4% to 1.86 mln ha in 2019, which would be over 66 thousand ha higher than provisional Defra data for 2018 and almost 28 thousand ha higher than the five year average (2014-2018). Winter barley is also forecast to see an increase in area in 2019 rising to 444 thousand ha, a 13% rise from the provisional 2018 area.
The increased forecast for wheat and winter barley likely come partly at the expense of spring barley, which is projected to decline in area by 3% to 735 thousand ha in 2019. This season is likely seeing a reversal of decisions made last year, when the wet autumnal weather in 2017 encouraged more spring planting, especially in northern regions.
Oats are also expected to see an increase in area in 2019, rising by over 16 thousand ha to reach 190 thousand ha. Notably this would also be 28% higher than the five year average. The attractiveness of oats in recent years has increased as an alternative profitable break crop.
With winter crops usually yielding higher than spring varieties it could be assumed that we may see a higher wheat production this year which could pressure prices. However, the weather in the months ahead will be key to determining the yield potential and size of the crop.
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