EU: Coceral raises the bar on forecast for soft wheat production but is more cautious on barley
Coceral raised the bar on forecasts for the European Union soft wheat harvest this year - flagging hopes of a particularly strong output recovery in France, where official data showed winter crop in good health.
The Brussels-based industry group, in its first forecasts for EU grains production in 2017-18, pegged the soft wheat harvest – the world's biggest – at 144.8 mln tonnes, a rise of 9.7 mln tonnes year on year.
The forecast is above the 143.9 mln tonne harvest forecast by Strategie Grains, and the 143.0 mln-tonne result that the European Commission has pencilled in.
On barley, Coceral was more cautious, seeing output flat at 59.6 mln tonnes - with a rise of some 800,000 tonnes to 28.9 mln tonnes in spring barley production offset by an easing in the winter crop harvest.
Strategie Grains sees EU barley output this year at 61.4 mln tonnes, with the commission forecasting the figure at 62.7 mln hectares.
Coceral's projection was based on an estimate of overall barley sowings falling some 100,000 hectares year on year to 12.3 mln hectares, as opposed to Strategie Grains's expectation of stable area, and a Brussels forecast of a 200,000-hectare increase.
Forecasts for EU barley output and (area) for 2017:
Coceral: 59.550 mln tonnes, (12.322 mln hectares)
European Commission: 62.7 mln tonnes, (12.5 mln hectares)
Strategie Grains: 61.4 mln tonnes, (12.4 mln hectares)
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